When Will Nate Diaz Fight Again
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Brett Okamoto
ESPN Staff Writer
- MMA columnist for ESPN.com
- Analyst for "MMA Live"
- Covered MMA for Las Vegas Sun
Conor McGregor is the biggest star in combat sports. Francis Ngannou is the baddest man on the planet. Nate Diaz is ane of the UFC's nigh beloved needle movers.
Every fourth dimension one of them steps into the Octagon, fans get excited. Simply right now, all of their UFC futures are in limbo.
McGregor, the one-time two-division UFC champion, is recovering from a broken leg suffered concluding July, leaving the timing of his return in question. Ngannou, the UFC heavyweight champion and a breathtaking knockout artist, has fought out his contract and might not return to the UFC muzzle at all. And Diaz has just 1 fight left on his bargain -- how can the UFC make the most of information technology?
Marc Raimondi and Brett Okamoto await into the future and effort to sort out what'due south adjacent for these iii UFC mainstays.
How did Nate Diaz and the UFC get to this point?
Raimondi: Diaz cashed in big subsequently submitting McGregor at UFC 196 in March 2016. He signed a massive five-fight deal with the UFC ahead of the McGregor rematch at UFC 202 in August of that aforementioned year. Diaz lost that fight to McGregor via bulk decision, merely the bad male child from Stockton, California, simply rose in popularity. The more than screen time Diaz has received over the past several years, the brighter his star has shined -- regardless of the consequence.
On this five-fight contract, Diaz is ane-3 leading into the final fight of his deal. One of those fights was a blockbuster at Madison Square Garden against Jorge Masvidal for the mythical BMF championship, which followed his win over onetime lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. He virtually finished tiptop welterweight Leon Edwards in his most recent bout at UFC 263, merely outside of that moment, Edwards dominated and the bout resulted in a unanimous decision loss.
Although he's no longer in his prime, the weed-smoking, hateful-mugging Diaz withal has a cult following. He turns 37 this yr, and his reputation equally a existent fighter who volition flake -- within or outside the cage -- with anyone notwithstanding holds. Diaz is unpredictable and politically wrong, and that'due south why many fans dear him.
The question now is, will he continue to be that guy in the UFC, or will he move on? Diaz is a bankable box-office star, and he will garner significant involvement as a gratis agent if he chooses that path. The UFC extended the time on his contract for six months in late 2021 later Diaz reportedly turned down a fight, which the promotion tin practice contractually. So, it'southward unlikely we'll see Diaz in the Octagon until the summer at the earliest. That volition be the terminal fight on his contract and a pivotal one for his future.
Whom should the last fight on Diaz'south UFC contract be confronting?
Okamoto: Conor McGregor. Diaz wanted to fight out his contract at the end of final year and the beginning of this year, merely the UFC is being selective about the final fight on his deal. The McGregor-Diaz trilogy is a massive fight, and the UFC doesn't want to lose its opportunity to make it. Now, the promotion also tin can't expect Diaz to sit and await forever, and when it comes to McGregor's schedule, there are never guarantees. But for the time being, that's the fight the UFC wants to brand for Diaz, and no one can blame the promotion for feeling that mode. It'south the fight to make.
Raimondi: Dustin Poirier. Diaz wants that fight, and so does Poirier. The UFC is interested, too. Right at present, it'due south just a timing issue. The UFC extended Diaz'south contract, so it technically does not accept to offer him another fight until belatedly spring or early summer. Diaz and Poirier were supposed to fight at MSG in 2018, merely the bout fell through. In that location is bad blood in that location. And a win over Diaz would aid Poirier bounce dorsum from his title loss to Charles Oliveira. For Diaz, Poirier represents a guy he doesn't like and a big name who beat McGregor twice terminal year.
The UFC will be very tempted to exercise McGregor vs. Diaz 3. Just there are still questions about McGregor's health, every bit he fractured a leg against Poirier last July. He said he would be able to spar in Apr, but there's no actual time frame yet for his render. Plus, if Diaz wants to hit the open market, he'd be in extreme demand coming off a trilogy victory over McGregor. It's part of the fight business to send away an outgoing fighter with the most challenging fight possible. But the UFC might exist seduced by the McGregor-Diaz trilogy payday.
What could life look like for Diaz if he leaves the UFC?
Okamoto: Lucrative. Either style, Diaz's future is bonny, just he doesn't need the UFC to get paid. Any MMA promotion would honey to accept him and might even be willing to sign him to 1-fight deals if that'south what it takes. Involvement in Diaz wouldn't exist tied only to the United states or MMA.
A boxing friction match against Jake Paul is an obvious possibility, but non the simply one. Life outside the UFC would likely involve Diaz partnering with the highest bidder, probably on short-term deals that would allow him the freedom to pursue the virtually assisting opportunities equally they nowadays themselves. It would mean less relevant fights for him in terms of any championship aspirations but plenty of money and flexibility.
Raimondi: Diaz volition control a boatload of coin regardless of what happens in the final fight of his bargain. He'southward 1 of the biggest names in MMA and ane of the biggest names in combat sports. Diaz's fights against McGregor are amongst the highest-selling pay-per-views in UFC history. Whatever he does next, Diaz is a viable pay-per-view headliner as an A-side or a B-side.
It'southward unlikely Diaz would get somewhere like a PFL (Professional Fighters League) or Bellator, at least not on a long-term contract. But Diaz and his brother Nick exercise have a proficient relationship with Bellator president Scott Coker going back to the days of Nick fighting for Strikeforce.
Boxing would brand a lot of sense. Diaz is a longtime grooming partner of former top pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, and Ward has praised Diaz's ability in the squared circumvolve. He could challenge himself in that location, maybe against Jake Paul, which would be 1 of the nearly significant pay-per-view events of the year if it happened. 1 could imagine Diaz boxing UFC legend Anderson Silva, who went 2-0 as a boxer in 2021.
Prediction: How does this end for Diaz?
Okamoto: I retrieve Diaz will re-sign with the UFC. The Diaz-McGregor trilogy will happen in 2022, and before that fight, Diaz and the UFC volition come up to terms with a new deal. Diaz wants to fight in a premier arrangement. Exploring other options will exist tantalizing, but ultimately he'll re-sign.
Raimondi: Diaz tries his manus at boxing. Perhaps with Triller, maybe against Paul. Possibly both. The restrictiveness of the UFC doesn't ever work keen with Diaz, who is a gratis spirit and prefers to do things his way. Boxing would permit him greater flexibility and shorter contracts. The massive paydays won't hurt, either.
How did Conor McGregor and the UFC get to this point?
Okamoto: McGregor signed a massive six-fight contract with the UFC in 2018, simply before his blockbuster title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Since then, McGregor has fought four times and recently confirmed two fights left on his deal.
How did McGregor arrive at this spot in his contract? The pandemic and the lost year of 2020 played a function. McGregor went into that twelvemonth with talks of a "season." He said he wanted to be agile, and while some things the Irishman says are bluster, behind the scenes, there was a lot of support to back up what he was maxim. He was in a good place. He was motivated.
At that place was frustration when the pandemic hit, and he couldn't book fights timely. His January 2021 fight against Dustin Poirier was i McGregor tried to force the UFC into booking by announcing beforehand he intended to do it for charity outside of the promotion.
It'south likewise worth noting the Manny Pacquiao rumors that swirled alee of that fight against Poirier a year ago. Had McGregor shell Poirier, at that place is a potent hazard he would have boxed Pacquiao after in the year.
Who knows what bear on those factors would have had on his contract status? Equally it stands, it has been ii relatively inactive, disappointing years for McGregor leading into the final two fights of his bargain.
Whom should the terminal fight on McGregor's UFC contract be confronting?
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Dana White on when Conor McGregor could return to the UFC
Dana White evaluates Conor McGregor'due south 2021 in the UFC and discusses when he thinks "The Notorious" could return in 2022.
Okamoto: It depends on how his next fight goes. If McGregor returns from his leg injury to a trilogy bout against Diaz and wins, the UFC likely books him in a lightweight title fight. That'southward unfair to the rest of the 155-pound segmentation, but information technology'south reality. McGregor confronting Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush -- it honestly doesn't matter who it is. Some of those matchups would exist bigger than others, but if it'south McGregor trying to win a championship fight for the offset time since 2016, it's money in the bank.
If he were to lose to Diaz, it'd be near finding McGregor an opponent that makes the most money. If the UFC is always in a situation where it has only one fight left with McGregor, wait the promotion to want to cash in as much equally possible. Mayhap Jorge Masvidal or Max Holloway?
Raimondi: There are and then many variables here. When does McGregor come back from a cleaved leg? Who is his first opponent back? Information technology does seem like there is a swell of interest in doing McGregor-Diaz 3 for McGregor'southward comeback fight, but it'south no lock. Let'due south say that's the one, for statement's sake. If McGregor wins that bout, it'south enormous, and he could call his shot. More than than likely, the UFC would book him in a title fight at that bespeak.
The reason is twofold. One, McGregor is the biggest star in the sport's history, and his fighting for the championship is a surefire blockbuster. If McGregor wins and becomes champion -- smash, the UFC'south champions clause kicks in, and the promotion would extend his contract.
Those two things are probably the best-case scenario for the UFC. If McGregor faces Diaz adjacent and loses, wait the UFC to renegotiate a new deal with McGregor or volume him in a very tough fight for the final tour on his contract. Likewise, exercise non rule out a potential quaternary fight against Poirier somewhere in there, as McGregor likely feels similar at that place is unfinished business.
What could life look like for McGregor if he leaves the UFC?
0:24
Conor McGregor stares down Max Holloway from home
Conor McGregor posts a video of himself pacing his living room and staring down Max Holloway before Holloway's fight.
Okamoto: One boxing match per year, mayhap. If McGregor leaves the UFC, I don't see a world where he regularly competes in MMA for any other promotion. The money fights don't exist for him outside of the UFC. Don't become me wrong: Anything that McGregor touches turns to gold, just gilt isn't enough these days. The only MMA fights that make sense for McGregor in terms of prestige, name value and marketability are in the UFC. If he were to fight out his contract, the about likely path frontwards would be i wildly lucrative battle friction match every 12 to 18 months.
Raimondi: McGregor Sports & Amusement takes flight. McGregor could become a fighter-promoter the manner Floyd Mayweather has done for years. He could build his fight cards in MMA or boxing and lend his name and vocalism to them as a front man. Once or twice a yr, he could compete in the primary events for his promotion against opponents he could handpick. McGregor Sports & Entertainment is already an entity and was one of McGregor's promoters for the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight. The Irishman's business is undoubtedly something he would like to grow in the future, whether he'southward in the UFC or exterior of information technology.
There would be some lucrative boxing matches out in that location for McGregor. Paul has already called him out several times. At 1 point, information technology seemed likely that McGregor would box Pacquiao. Heck, Mayweather vs. McGregor two could even come up into the fold if McGregor is a complimentary amanuensis. McGregor would take the ability to make an obscene amount of money, and every bit someone who cherishes the Forbes list of highest-paid athletes every year, that could be highly-seasoned.
Prediction: How does this finish for McGregor?
Okamoto: Re-signs with the UFC. McGregor and the UFC have had issues over the years, but they they remain relatively positive every bit partners because of the mutually benign relationship. If McGregor nonetheless has an itch to box, the UFC could get backside his ambition again, and I believe it would practise so again under the right circumstances. I don't see either side walking abroad from the other after this contract is up.
Raimondi: McGregor is worth so much to the UFC. It would be shocking if McGregor went elsewhere. And honestly, despite some ups and downs over the years, McGregor has seemed pretty happy with the UFC, too. They take been fantabulous partners for each other. There'due south a world where both sides could be satisfied with a time to come deal that allows McGregor to box. Perchance McGregor even gets that stake in the UFC he has been asking for since 2016.
How did Francis Ngannou and the UFC get to this point?
Raimondi: The animosity betwixt the UFC and Ngannou has been building up for years.
In 2018, following Ngannou'south title loss to Stipe Miocic, UFC president Dana White said in interviews that Ngannou's ego had begun to go the best of him. Ngannou wasn't a fan of those comments and the 2 have not seen eye to center since then.
The human relationship was strained farther after Ngannou won the UFC heavyweight title from Miocic at UFC 260 in March 2021. The UFC wanted Ngannou to turn around and defend the championship last August against Derrick Lewis at UFC 265. Ngannou had already planned a trip to his home land of Republic of cameroon in the late spring and early summer, though, and he wouldn't be gear up for an early on August appointment.
Rather than wait for Ngannou, who said he could fight in September, the UFC decided to take Lewis fight Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title instead. That didn't sit right with Ngannou, who had just won the title five months before and had sat around waiting for his earned title fight for more than than a twelvemonth while Miocic and Daniel Cormier settled their trilogy. Behind the scenes, Ngannou's contract was nearing its end with no extension in place.
Gane ended up chirapsia Lewis, setting up a championship bout betwixt Ngannou and Gane -- a pair of old teammates in Paris -- concluding month at UFC 270. In the atomic number 82-up to the fight, Ngannou felt like the UFC did him no favors. He said he thought the promotion gear up him upward to walk past Gane and Ngannou's estranged quondam charabanc, Fernand Lopez, at Madison Square Garden last November to build drama for the bout. The incident was caught on video, with Ngannou walking past and ignoring Lopez and Gane. Then, sparring footage betwixt Ngannou and Gane surfaced, making Gane expect good. Ngannou said he thought the UFC was again messing with him.
Had Gane defeated Ngannou final month, Ngannou would accept been a gratuitous agent. But because he won, the UFC'south champions clause kicks in and Ngannou remains under contract for 1 yr or three fights, whichever comes earliest. The 35-year-old knockout artist has been adamant near wanting to box before retiring, and that'due south ane of several sticking points with the UFC. Ngannou has said he is willing to wait out the year and not compete again under this contract. To further dingy things, Ngannou went into the Gane fight with a torn MCL and damaged ACL, which will require surgery. Ngannou will exist out for at to the lowest degree nine months.
Whom should Ngannou's last fight be against?
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White: Non putting belt on Ngannou had aught to do with 'disrespect'
Dana White acknowledges he didn't put the chugalug on Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 but says no disrespect was meant by it.
Okamoto: We might accept already seen Ngannou's last fight in the UFC. If he doesn't sign a new deal over the next twelvemonth, then I don't see him walking to the Octagon always again. And so, it'south hard to answer this question -- or it's straightforward, depending on how you look at it. If he doesn't stay with the UFC, the answer to this particular question is Gane, and it has already happened. He won't take a big "last fight" send-off.
Raimondi: It might have already happened against Gane. Ngannou has said he won't compete again under this current contract with the UFC, which pays simply a guaranteed $600,000 per fight. So, he might wait out the yr and become a free agent. He said last week on "The MMA Hour" that he has left almost $7 million in offers from the UFC on the table because accepting that meant calculation more than fights to his UFC contract.
Ngannou as well said that the UFC emailed his agent, Marquel Martin, threatening to sue him the night of Ngannou'due south fight against Gane. The UFC's claim, Ngannou noted, is that Martin had improper conversations with Jake Paul'south team about boxing while Ngannou was under UFC contract.
The two sides are not on solid terms right now, and with Ngannou facing an extended amount of time on the shelf considering of the human knee injury, it seems like there's a good run a risk he'll enter free bureau without fighting again. If he does fight again for the UFC, It will be nether a newly negotiated contract -- rendering this question largely moot.
What could life look similar for Ngannou if he leaves the UFC?
Okamoto: That'southward an interesting question, as he turned down multiple offers from the UFC on a new deal. I believe life outside the UFC would include the ane affair Ngannou seems to want more than annihilation: a high-profile boxing friction match. I think it's realistic for him to book a fight against someone such as Tyson Fury or Deontay Wilder in 2023. Beyond that, it gets a petty cloudy. Ngannou is a fantastic competitor and the best MMA heavyweight on the planet, but no, I'm not as well addicted of his chances against a seasoned heavyweight boxer. I think the battle play could very well be a lucrative one-and-done, and and then we'd encounter him back in MMA. An organization such as the PFL could be a skilful fit.
Raimondi: This is an easy question to answer. Just mind to Ngannou's interviews. The man'southward dream, going back to his time digging sand mines in Cameroon, has been to become the battle world champion. That'south why he left Cameroon for Kingdom of morocco and why he hopped on a raft most the Strait of Gibraltar en route to Europe. Ngannou was looking for someone to train him in boxing, and MMA was just something suggested to him in Paris past sometime bus Didier Carmont. It turns out, he was very skillful at it -- proficient plenty to go the UFC heavyweight champion.
But Ngannou'southward heart has always been with boxing, and he seems adamant that he will box earlier he retires. Fury has already called him out on social media. Fifty-fifty if Ngannou would be a massive underdog, that could be a real fight. Ngannou is a big enough name and he certainly looks the part of getting a fight with Fury, Wilder or Anthony Joshua. Win or lose, the payday will be massive. Fury is making north of $32 million for his next bout against Dillian Whyte, and Ngannou has a more prominent proper noun than Whyte.
Prediction: How does this end for Ngannou?
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Ngannou says he won't fight over again without new UFC contract
Francis Ngannou tells Brett Okamoto he doesn't plan to fight again without a new UFC contract.
Okamoto: I was always pretty optimistic that Ngannou and the UFC would eventually figure it out and he would sign a new bargain. Merely subsequently hearing him talk at the UFC 270 postfight news conference, I am less so. He didn't merely sound similar someone who was willing to exit the UFC; Ngannou sounded like someone who was resigned to the likelihood he is leaving the UFC. There's no rush correct at present to finalize a decision, as Ngannou is under contract through 2022 and he can't fight anyhow because of injury.
A lot can change over a year, giving the ii sides time to hash something out. This situation is incommunicable to predict. But taking my atomic number 82 from what Ngannou said at UFC 270, I'll put his chances of leaving the UFC at 51%. Either way, we seem to be heading for an acting heavyweight title fight. Given the uncertainty around Ngannou's future and the fact he needs articulatio genus surgery, an interim title fight would make sense. And the fight to make for the interim title would be Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones.
Raimondi: Ngannou is going to box. The question is whether it's with the UFC's blessing or as a free agent. Either thing could happen, though it sure feels like at this point that Ngannou and the UFC are on the outs, specially given the legal threats to Martin, on fight night, no less. That's not to say this is a done deal. There is plenty of time for the UFC and Ngannou to make a deal. Only if they don't, i would expect Ngannou's next fight to be in a boxing ring sometime in 2023 against a big heavyweight proper noun.
Source: https://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/33181172/what-comes-next-ufc-conor-mcgregor-francis-ngannou-nate-diaz
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